The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an international research and analysis advisory firm, has
restated its earlier prediction that President John Dramani Mahama and the opposition National
Democratic Congress (NDC) are poised to emerge victorious in the upcoming elections
scheduled for December.
In a forecast issued on September 13, 2024, the EIU reinforced its May 2021 prediction,
expressing a high level of confidence in the NDC’s potential success.
The forecast now lacks the cautious tone that accompanied the previous 2021 prediction,
attributing the anticipated victory to strong and widespread anti-incumbency sentiment fueled by
challenging financial and economic conditions
The EIU anticipates a peaceful transfer of powerpost-election, with any disputes likely to be
resolved by impartial courts, as has been the historical trend, including in the 2020 elections.
The EIU, the research arm of the Economist Group, renowned for the precision of its projections,
has effectivelyforeseen past electoral outcomes such as the 2016 and 2020 triumphs of the ruling
New Patriotic Party and Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in the 2020 U.S. presidential
election.
According to the EIU’s latest assessment, the NDC is expected to securevictories in both the
Presidential and Parliamentary elections.
The forecast attributes this potential success to widespread disillusionment with the Akufo-Addo
government’s handling of Ghana’s economy.
The EIU emphasizes that international observers have consistently deemed past elections as free
and fair, expecting thistrend to persist in the forthcoming polls.
Despite the NDC’s planned demonstrations across the regional capitals citing concerns over the
electoral roll’s accuracy, the EIU suggests a low transition-related risk to their central forecast.
Public discontent with the incumbent government’s economic policies, ethnic tensions, and
rising inflation all pose potential risks of unrest around the parliamentary and presidential
elections in December.